The  Swing Voter Project is an ongoing collaboration between Sago and the market research minds at Engagious. This initiative gives swing voters — those who voted for Trump in 2016 and then for Biden in 2020 — the opportunity to share their viewpoints through monthly online focus groups.

Each respondent group comprises swing voters from the 10 most competitive states in the 2020 U.S. elections. In August 2022, the spotlight was on Florida.

Understanding the Florida Swing Voter Group

For this latest round, we invited a dozen Trump-to-Biden swing voters from across Florida to our panel. The discussion covered some of the most pressing issues for this demographic, including the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago, Florida’s senate and governor races, and trans/non-binary human rights.

If we came out of this meeting learning anything, it’s that leaders in both parties should be paying close attention when it comes to these matters.

Swing Voters’ Views on the Inflation Reduction Act

One glaring issue for democrats is the so-called reconciliation bill (aka the Inflation Reduction Act) currently being pushed through congress. This law is designed to help curb inflation by reducing the deficit, lowering prescription drug prices, and promoting clean, domestic energy production.

Nine out of the 12 respondents were aware that this bill was recently passed by the Senate.

Now that you’ve seen the key provisions, who thinks the Inflation Reduction Act will actually work to reduce inflation?

Our panel’s take on the Inflation Reduction Act was generally positive, but mixed.

• Ten out of the 12 respondents thought the bill would help reverse climate change over time.
• Nine out of the 12 thought it would make healthcare more affordable.
• Four out of the 12 believed it would make our tax system fairer.
• Only three out of the 12 thought the hiring of thousands of additional IRS agents would make them personally more likely to get audited.

The bottom line: Nine out of 12 are in favor of their congressperson voting in this new law.

What are your thoughts on the FBI raid of former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate?

With the raid on Mar-a-Lago taking place in their state just a day before the focus group was held, we were very keen to have our panelists share their reactions.

11 out of 12 told us if Trump took classified documents back to Mar-a-Lago from the White House when he left office, that would constitute a serious crime. The same number of respondents believed the FBI raid was justified.

“People have been searched and prosecuted for much [less], and I feel like he should be made an example of because he’s a human and a citizen just like all of us.”

The U.S. Senate Election in Florida: Demings vs Rubio

More of our respondents (11/12) were able to identify an unlabelled photo of Sen. Marco Rubio compared to U.S. Congresswoman Val Demings (6/12). The two candidates square off for the Senate seat this November.

Although public polling suggests Rubio will win the race, this swing voter group’s sentiment did not reflect this prediction.

Here are some of the adjectives our group used to describe Demings: powerful, honorable, strong, humble, agreeable, hopeful, and progressive.

Here are some of the adjectives they used to describe Rubio: slimy, coward, sell-out, disingenuous, puppet, absent.

A single respondent did have one positive thing to say on Rubio: “I do like his fight for Cuba. He’s done a lot to support the Cuban refugees down in Miami.”

The Florida Governor Race: Crist vs DeSantis

The other big Florida matchup this November is likely to be former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist against the incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis.

In this case, most respondents could identify photos of both candidates. Political favor, however, leaned toward Crist — though the group’s support for him could not be described as emphatic.

Here are some adjectives they used to describe Crist: flip-flopper, decent to average, turncoat, respectable, a little weak, effective, extremely personable and a perpetual politician.

Here are some of the descriptors they used for DeSantis: a bull in a China shop, mini-Trump, likes to fight with courts, revenge politics, opportunist, fake, slimy, petty, egotistical, and power-hungry.

Despite this string of pejoratives, some respondents praised DeSantis for his measures to protect the environment in Florida and his efforts to promote tourism.

Leave it to swing voters to see the good in the bad. Still, none of the 12 respondents felt DeSantis would be a good candidate for the U.S. presidency.

How do you view the increasing visibility of people who are trans or non-binary?

Our final topic of discussion was somewhat touchy, though it triggered a generally compassionate response. In general, people seem to accept these significant societal changes, but there’s not a wholesale embrace.
Ten out of 12 respondents stated they know people who identify as transgender or non-binary.

These respondents attribute the growing visibility of trans and non-binary people to multiple factors:

• More exposure in the media
• The ability of gay Americans over the past decades to pave the way
• A growing concern about what’s contributing to mental health challenges in our society

However, half our respondents found the reference to “pregnant people” instead of “pregnant women” to be somewhat off-putting.

“As a woman, I feel that society or whoever is behind this is trying to erase the woman … it’s all an agenda to minimize the woman.”

It seems where trans advocates face the greatest challenge with swing voters is altering public policy.

None of the 12 respondents support Medicaid coverage for hormone therapy or gender affirming surgery.

“Medicaid, no…give that to people who are struggling, give that to people who are in need.”

None of the 12 support allowing children with their parents’ support to receive hormone therapy, puberty blockers, or surgery.

And virtually none support the participation of transgender athletes on the team whose gender they identify with.

With the swing voter demographic, a progressive attitude is present, but its translation into political policy change is unclear.